Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -6000 LR +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +58 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -17.3 (+40.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -18.9 (+39.1) | 147.5 (-21.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -18.3 (+39.7) | 145.7 (-19.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -16.7 (+41.3) | 144.0 (-18.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -18.8 (+39.2) | 147.8 (-21.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#23) | 2.6 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#142) | 0.39 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#137) | 0.32 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#219) | 0.519 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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