Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -140 MEM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -4.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.9 (-8.9) | 147.9 (-13.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.2 (-6.8) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -1.1 (-6.9) | 146.9 (-12.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.5 (-8.5) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#49) | 14.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#49) | 4.04 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#38) | 5.86 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#96) | 0.775 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 47.9% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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