Southern Miss
Golden Eagles
74
–
82
FINAL
Neutral
Basketball Travelers Invitational
Abilene Christian
Wildcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | USM +140 ACU -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -3.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -2.7 (-5.3) | 143.3 (+12.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -2.6 (-5.4) | 144.1 (+11.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -2.8 (-5.2) | 141.6 (+14.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -1.0 (-7.0) | 143.3 (+12.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#314) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#310) | -0.47 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#305) | -0.56 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#356) | 0.515 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 51.4% |
Game Analysis
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