Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LIB +105 MCN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -4.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -1.8 (+2.2) | 130.6 (-10.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -3.2 (+0.8) | 133.0 (-13.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -4.2 (-0.2) | 130.7 (-10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -4.1 (-0.1) | 130.0 (-10.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 19-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 64.5 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#38) | 5.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#30) | 1.13 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#26) | 1.93 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#59) | 0.666 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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