Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +74 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -27.9 (+46.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -30.8 (+43.2) | 143.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -26.4 (+47.6) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -22.5 (+51.5) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -21.5 (+52.5) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#63) | -13.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#68) | -3.16 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#64) | -4.55 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#79) | 0.325 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 60.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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