Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | RICH +280 LT -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -14.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -8.0 (+5.0) | 145.3 (-18.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -7.9 (+4.9) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -7.1 (+4.1) | 141.7 (-14.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.3 (+5.3) | 143.9 (-16.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#278) | 7.9 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#267) | 1.85 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#277) | 2.64 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#278) | 0.502 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 19.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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