Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +115 EMU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -0.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -0.5 (-1.5) | 130.2 (+16.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -0.0 (-1.0) | 128.8 (+18.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -1.2 (+0.2) | 130.1 (+16.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -1.6 (+0.6) | 132.2 (+14.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#340) | -3.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#322) | 0.22 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#310) | -0.40 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#227) | 0.429 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.6% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.0% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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