Betting Lines
| Spread | COR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | IONA +105 COR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COR +16 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -2.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -1.7 (-17.7) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -2.6 (-18.6) | 148.5 (+3.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.5 (-18.5) | 147.2 (+4.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COR -0.5 (-15.5) | 148.0 (+4.0) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#325) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#298) | -0.53 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#291) | -1.63 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#296) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 44.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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