Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -275 NORF +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +21 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UCD -7.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -5.9 (-26.9) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -6.3 (-27.3) | 143.6 (-12.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -6.1 (-27.1) | 143.1 (-12.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -5.1 (-26.1) | 144.7 (-13.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#118) | 1.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#63) | 0.30 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#57) | 0.62 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#50) | 0.526 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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