Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | USC -10000 GRAM +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.0 (+0.0) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -7.9 (+3.1) | 139.5 (+9.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.9 (+3.1) | 140.1 (+8.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -8.7 (+2.3) | 138.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#126) | -0.46 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#93) | -0.33 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#239) | 0.568 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 27.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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