Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -320 COLO +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -1.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.9 (+13.1) | 146.5 (-18.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -0.2 (+16.2) | 145.1 (-17.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.2 (+15.8) | 143.7 (-15.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.2 (+14.8) | 144.5 (-16.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#74) | 8.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#124) | 2.36 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#132) | 3.89 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#186) | 0.603 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.1% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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