Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -1000 LIU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +22 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -6.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -6.3 (+15.7) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.5 (+17.5) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.2 (+17.8) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -3.4 (+18.6) | 146.7 (+5.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | WIN 94 – 92 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#218) | -2.6 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#244) | 1.15 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#238) | 1.75 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#270) | 0.620 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 42.0% |
Game Analysis
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