Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -6.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.9 (+3.9) | 150.3 (+35.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -3.2 (+1.2) | 148.1 (+37.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.1 (+2.1) | 149.1 (+36.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.6 (+2.6) | 149.6 (+36.4) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2024 | WIN 87 – 65 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#225) | 8.2 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#117) | 0.90 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#150) | 1.47 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#121) | 0.552 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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