Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -425 QUC +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -11.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -9.8 (+5.2) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -7.4 (+7.6) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -7.5 (+7.5) | 141.6 (+7.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -9.2 (+5.8) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | QUC 78 – 75 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#208) | -6.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#291) | -1.06 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#292) | -2.30 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#288) | 0.403 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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