Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -7000 CP +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -6.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -12.8 (+1.2) | 155.0 (-9.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.7 (+5.3) | 155.0 (-9.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.9 (+6.1) | 155.4 (-9.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.2 (+1.8) | 151.7 (-5.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#91) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#10) | 1.27 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.81 (#13) | 3.03 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.741 (#8) | 0.561 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 45.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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