Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | LIP -1800 JKST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -18.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -13.2 (+10.8) | 145.8 (-15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -13.2 (+10.8) | 147.4 (-17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -12.2 (+11.8) | 146.2 (-16.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -11.9 (+12.1) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#171) | -12.3 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#231) | -1.44 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#179) | -1.74 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#220) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 64.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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