Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -150 MIA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -3.8 (+3.2) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -1.8 (+5.2) | 146.0 (+1.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -2.0 (+5.0) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -2.7 (+4.3) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-10 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#81) | 4.8 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#202) | -0.26 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#171) | -0.18 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#128) | 0.456 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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