Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | AF -500 MERC +375 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +34 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | AF -3.5 (+30.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.4 (+31.6) | 127.9 (+2.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -2.9 (+31.1) | 127.5 (+2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -2.7 (+31.3) | 126.2 (+3.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -1.2 (+32.8) | 126.0 (+4.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 9-7 |
| Home | 3-13 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-14 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L5 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#306) | -5.1 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#305) | 0.24 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#271) | -0.32 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#272) | 0.512 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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