Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -350 BRY +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -11.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -13.1 (+1.9) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -12.7 (+2.3) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -11.8 (+3.2) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -9.6 (+5.4) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#67) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#31) | 0.53 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#28) | 0.65 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#104) | 0.491 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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