Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | APP -170 W&M +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -1.8 (+4.8) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -2.1 (+5.1) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -1.7 (+4.7) | 142.2 (+12.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.4 (+2.6) | 147.1 (+7.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#325) | -0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#292) | -0.35 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#306) | 0.49 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#217) | 0.466 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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