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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–3 on winners spread MAE 7.3 35 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Florida Gulf Coast @ Tennessee	—	—	—	50–81	—
Oakland @ Toledo	+20.8	164.2	90%	90–112	✓
Marist @ Lehigh	—	—	—	54–64	—
Ohio @ Detroit Mercy	—	—	—	74–88	—
William & Mary @ American University	+8.7	138.5	82%	64–71	✓
Delaware State @ Columbia	+4.2	140.5	72%	65–70	✓
Cincinnati @ Northern Kentucky	—	—	—	51–64	—
Hampton @ East Carolina	—	—	—	73–82	—
Cleveland State @ Canisius	+2.0	146.4	33%	58–57	✗
Charleston Southern @ Tulane	—	—	—	79–99	—
Harvard @ Northeastern	-0.8	141.3	52%	70–69	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Ohio State	—	—	—	43–65	—
Presbyterian @ UAB	+19.0	146.8	90%	61–92	✓
Iowa @ Seton Hall	—	—	—	83–67	—
Army @ Siena	—	—	—	96–94	—
Texas Southern @ Houston	+27.2	131.0	90%	48–83	✓
South Dakota State @ Arkansas	+6.6	131.8	74%	56–71	✓
Valparaiso @ Chicago State	+0.4	145.7	64%	74–87	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Evansville	—	—	—	67–61	—
Southern Indiana @ Notre Dame	+5.0	151.4	74%	70–82	✓
Ball State @ Omaha	—	—	—	71–61	—
Southern @ Saint Mary's	+18.0	125.4	89%	54–72	✓
VCU @ Arizona State	-2.2	132.7	46%	59–63	✗
Missouri State @ BYU	—	—	—	64–66	—
Cal State Bakersfield @ Idaho	—	—	—	52–43	—
Gonzaga @ Texas	+8.0	142.2	74%	74–93	✓
San Francisco @ Fresno State	—	—	—	67–60	—
Furman @ Penn State	—	—	—	68–73	—
Colorado @ Massachusetts	-5.5	142.7	37%	63–66	✗
Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech	—	—	—	71–75	—
Murray State @ Texas A&M	—	—	—	88–79	—
Colorado State @ South Carolina	-6.4	133.5	29%	85–53	✓
Saint Francis @ Butler	+18.9	141.9	88%	67–95	✓
Kansas City @ Kansas State	+21.1	136.5	90%	53–69	✓
Nebraska @ St. John's	+8.1	143.1	77%	50–70	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.