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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–9 on winners spread MAE 9.5 32 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wagner @ Bryant	-0.5	151.7	55%	43–70	✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington	-1.3	135.8	49%	59–55	✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky	-0.4	136.9	50%	72–71	✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville	+2.0	137.4	57%	74–84	✓
Canisius @ Fairfield	+1.1	131.6	51%	50–72	✓
Marshall @ Florida International	-1.5	145.9	41%	74–62	✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA	+4.1	138.6	68%	67–64	✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga	+7.6	137.5	77%	69–82	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State	+5.8	151.7	72%	69–75	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge	-3.7	123.6	31%	58–45	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist	+6.3	146.5	77%	80–81	✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist	+2.0	139.6	58%	77–52	✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+5.6	127.9	72%	53–63	✓
Chicago State @ Utah Valley	+11.8	134.0	84%	47–69	✓
Idaho @ Sacramento State	+1.9	143.7	67%	54–57	✓
Syracuse @ Florida State	-0.5	149.7	55%	96–57	✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle	-1.9	136.7	45%	56–63	✗
New Mexico @ Nevada	+3.8	149.7	68%	72–79	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+4.0	136.3	71%	52–66	✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest	+7.0	141.5	76%	82–77	✗
Stanford @ Arizona State	+0.8	128.9	53%	71–70	✗
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+4.7	130.1	68%	50–54	✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island	+7.6	133.0	78%	77–79	✓
Air Force @ Utah State	+16.2	125.1	87%	56–83	✓
Butler @ Xavier	+6.9	135.6	77%	89–82	✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+8.9	140.3	82%	75–78	✓
Oregon State @ Oregon	+9.7	147.1	83%	72–86	✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri	-2.7	132.8	43%	60–72	✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian	+2.3	143.8	61%	64–74	✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+16.4	140.2	89%	66–74	✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern	+5.5	149.1	75%	69–71	✓
Rice @ Charlotte	+1.1	143.4	58%	73–61	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.