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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 34 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rutgers @ Penn State	+3.4	144.3	71%	67–75	✓
Wichita State @ Memphis	+1.4	137.1	60%	52–72	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.7	128.5	34%	67–57	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+3.3	144.8	73%	51–62	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	+0.5	144.0	57%	76–58	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+5.4	127.3	73%	65–76	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Kentucky	+14.1	155.6	88%	73–113	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont	+11.7	155.4	83%	66–79	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	+0.6	125.8	50%	65–61	✗
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-4.3	138.4	32%	62–51	✓
Montana @ Sacramento State	+3.0	126.7	64%	78–66	✗
Jacksonville State @ Murray State	+0.5	134.0	50%	85–82	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay	+7.5	143.9	79%	69–72	✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	-2.0	140.6	40%	76–78	✗
Indiana @ Iowa	+11.3	157.5	83%	81–69	✗
UCLA @ California	-7.7	138.7	26%	61–57	✓
Arizona @ Arizona State	-7.4	154.2	23%	84–82	✓
Portland @ BYU	+16.9	150.1	90%	67–95	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	+1.0	136.4	48%	67–65	✗
Pacific @ Pepperdine	-2.4	142.0	43%	68–85	✗
Southern Utah @ Weber State	+5.2	153.7	74%	67–91	✓
Utah @ Washington State	+1.0	136.2	50%	71–56	✗
San Francisco @ Santa Clara	-1.9	137.2	51%	73–50	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+1.2	129.6	57%	64–57	✗
Colorado State @ Utah State	+5.8	140.8	67%	84–76	✗
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis	-11.0	138.8	18%	95–65	✓
Niagara @ Quinnipiac	-0.6	131.6	36%	59–56	✓
Saint Francis @ Sacred Heart	+0.5	144.9	57%	70–82	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+3.3	144.0	65%	71–76	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Central Connecticut	-3.8	127.2	33%	64–65	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	-1.0	154.6	49%	59–77	✗
UIC @ Youngstown State	-0.8	143.3	53%	67–66	✓
Georgia State @ App State	-2.5	152.0	43%	71–80	✗
Troy @ Coastal Carolina	+14.1	137.4	87%	81–90	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.