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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.5 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Youngstown State @ Stephen F. Austin	+4.0	126.4	64%	57–64	✓
New Mexico State @ UNLV	+11.6	141.7	83%	65–72	✓
Stony Brook @ Columbia	+14.5	148.8	88%	63–82	✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State	+2.3	134.4	57%	68–52	✗
Rider @ Bucknell	+5.9	146.3	73%	57–53	✗
Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's	+7.9	155.4	77%	66–80	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Colorado	+17.0	159.1	89%	98–114	✓
Eastern Washington @ California Baptist	+5.0	150.6	69%	68–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ BYU	+25.4	142.9	91%	43–87	✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara	-0.2	145.6	37%	71–69	✓
Portland @ Princeton	+7.2	142.2	77%	67–94	✓
St. John's @ Georgia	-1.4	148.8	47%	63–66	✗
Hampton @ Boise State	+17.6	139.5	90%	69–83	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northeastern	+7.2	137.4	80%	68–60	✗
American University @ UAlbany	+3.4	131.3	70%	81–77	✗
Holy Cross @ Maine	+4.1	140.3	65%	55–80	✓
Boston University @ Howard	+5.2	137.6	75%	69–62	✗
Omaha @ Lamar	-1.2	145.5	41%	65–59	✓
Wofford @ Portland State	-1.7	149.4	45%	74–79	✗
Charleston @ Rhode Island	+10.0	159.8	79%	53–91	✓
Miami @ VCU	+2.0	144.6	63%	70–77	✓
Rutgers @ Kennesaw State	+4.4	155.9	66%	77–79	✓
South Florida @ Wright State	+4.7	145.5	75%	73–72	✗
William & Mary @ App State	-1.7	142.2	43%	76–79	✗
Vermont @ Fairfield	-2.7	128.8	43%	66–67	✗
Binghamton @ Central Connecticut	+10.7	132.1	85%	56–64	✓
Villanova @ Maryland	+12.9	144.4	88%	75–76	✓
South Dakota State @ Duquesne	-6.3	145.4	25%	71–60	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Valparaiso	+4.1	143.8	65%	53–81	✓
Bryant @ St. Bonaventure	+11.8	146.3	83%	70–85	✓
UNC Asheville @ Central Arkansas	-1.9	139.9	34%	83–92	✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Milwaukee	+1.8	147.3	57%	65–69	✓
LSU @ UCF	-3.3	140.3	40%	109–102	✓
Oklahoma State @ Nevada	+5.7	137.9	76%	78–90	✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast	+5.9	130.8	69%	59–60	✓
Alabama State @ Akron	+3.5	148.8	65%	78–97	✓
North Alabama @ Northwestern State	-0.9	144.4	42%	58–71	✗
Florida State @ Massachusetts	-3.4	145.4	37%	92–59	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Utah Tech	-11.3	148.4	17%	89–79	✓
Towson @ Morgan State	-0.5	139.0	39%	64–60	✓
Campbell @ Evansville	+2.8	143.4	60%	53–66	✓
Mercyhurst @ Air Force	+2.7	126.2	56%	48–82	✓
Sacramento State @ California	+9.9	135.7	82%	77–83	✓
Alcorn State @ UC Riverside	+14.7	139.9	89%	52–69	✓
Idaho @ San Diego	+3.7	142.6	58%	61–68	✓
Missouri State @ High Point	+3.0	145.9	68%	71–61	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri	+27.0	155.1	91%	63–112	✓
Queens University @ East Tennessee State	+7.5	141.6	76%	67–82	✓
Jackson State @ Lipscomb	+12.2	146.2	87%	53–77	✓
Longwood @ McNeese	+2.5	133.3	59%	69–84	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Bradley	+3.3	147.2	70%	69–80	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Seton Hall	-3.6	137.2	34%	61–63	✗
Yale @ Delaware	-7.1	152.2	24%	94–100	✗
Wisconsin @ Pittsburgh	+7.6	150.7	81%	81–75	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.