He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–7 on winners spread MAE 8.7 30 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Grambling @ USC +7.9 140.1 79% 69–80 ✓
Denver @ Montana +4.0 145.4 66% 73–83 ✓
Old Dominion @ Boston College +14.1 140.6 87% 52–82 ✓
Liberty @ Kansas State -4.4 134.6 31% 67–65 ✓
Ohio @ Texas State +2.2 144.6 61% 65–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ New Mexico +18.3 152.1 90% 68–99 ✓
Southern Miss @ Montana State +11.4 152.3 85% 59–79 ✓
Drake @ Vanderbilt +0.5 140.2 60% 81–70 ✗
Radford @ Chicago State -9.5 141.0 18% 63–48 ✓
Hampton @ Duquesne -1.5 131.5 41% 64–59 ✓
Siena @ Miami (OH) +0.1 143.6 49% 58–70 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Ball State -6.6 140.1 25% 61–63 ✗
Howard @ UMBC -2.8 143.9 36% 77–95 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana -6.2 153.1 27% 98–86 ✓
Drexel @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.9 145.0 71% 81–87 ✓
Boise State @ South Dakota State -4.2 149.8 35% 83–82 ✓
Memphis @ UConn +2.6 143.0 59% 99–97 ✗
Illinois State @ George Washington +0.6 144.8 58% 64–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Louisiana Tech +8.0 144.0 83% 79–85 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Alabama A&M +3.5 145.0 59% 88–83 ✗
Mercer @ Jacksonville +7.1 143.3 78% 90–89 ✗
Denver @ Cal State Northridge +9.2 147.5 84% 60–89 ✓
Penn State @ Fordham -10.8 154.5 19% 85–66 ✓
High Point @ Old Dominion -10.1 141.2 18% 73–67 ✓
Longwood @ Kansas State +0.7 138.2 57% 64–80 ✓
Colorado @ Michigan State +0.2 143.7 51% 56–72 ✓
Merrimack @ UMass Lowell +7.2 135.2 74% 74–81 ✓
Michigan @ Virginia Tech -5.8 139.4 27% 75–63 ✓
Long Island University @ Winthrop +4.5 145.4 66% 65–87 ✓
Clemson @ San Francisco +0.9 140.5 56% 70–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.