I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–9 on winners spread MAE 10.9 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Le Moyne @ UConn +24.9 152.7 91% 49–90 ✓
Montana @ Tennessee +23.7 135.4 90% 57–92 ✓
Tennessee State @ Howard -2.8 141.5 43% 84–88 ✗
Georgia State @ Jacksonville State +5.5 145.7 70% 67–72 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ NC State +14.5 135.4 86% 70–82 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bucknell +14.9 147.8 88% 93–89 ✗
Harvard @ Northeastern +5.2 146.3 69% 56–78 ✓
Wright State @ Toledo +10.4 155.5 80% 77–86 ✓
Wofford @ Presbyterian +6.4 143.3 75% 68–71 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Florida Gulf Coast -0.7 133.8 38% 74–65 ✓
Richmond @ Charlotte +8.8 146.2 78% 48–65 ✓
Ball State @ Dayton +16.0 140.5 88% 69–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ George Mason +10.7 138.8 81% 70–69 ✗
Milwaukee @ Longwood +17.2 144.5 88% 62–76 ✓
Canisius @ Mercyhurst +8.8 147.3 81% 52–62 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Wake Forest +13.5 143.8 88% 80–85 ✓
Merrimack @ VCU +13.8 134.9 84% 42–63 ✓
Evansville @ Middle Tennessee +17.6 141.1 89% 63–80 ✓
Southern @ East Texas A&M +2.8 147.6 64% 68–70 ✓
Kent State @ Auburn +21.4 141.6 89% 56–79 ✓
Louisiana @ Houston +25.7 138.6 91% 45–91 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas +3.9 135.6 52% 49–65 ✓
Green Bay @ Western Illinois +9.1 139.7 81% 87–73 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Tulsa +13.9 150.2 86% 76–85 ✓
California @ Vanderbilt +10.3 149.9 80% 69–85 ✓
Wyoming @ Texas Tech +14.2 145.8 85% 49–96 ✓
Seton Hall @ Hofstra +6.9 128.5 79% 48–49 ✓
North Texas @ Minnesota +7.2 135.1 74% 54–51 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Nebraska +18.6 144.7 89% 60–86 ✓
Houston Christian @ Creighton +15.9 145.1 87% 43–78 ✓
Oakland @ Illinois +25.0 143.6 91% 54–66 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Colorado +13.9 144.4 86% 53–83 ✓
Queens University @ BYU +17.5 142.4 88% 55–99 ✓
North Dakota State @ Santa Clara +10.5 146.9 81% 88–80 ✗
Fresno State @ UC Santa Barbara +21.7 148.3 90% 86–91 ✓
Weber State @ Nevada +16.9 133.9 86% 58–88 ✓
Long Beach State @ San Francisco +8.3 148.5 75% 54–84 ✓
UT Arlington @ USC +17.7 150.8 89% 95–98 ✓
Utah Valley @ North Dakota -4.3 143.5 37% 71–77 ✗
Lindenwood @ New Orleans -0.9 145.3 47% 74–82 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ IU Indianapolis +4.1 140.2 69% 74–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.