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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–8 on winners spread MAE 11.9 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Coppin State @ UMBC	+6.2	134.6	70%	67–92	✓
Stonehill @ Robert Morris	+8.2	141.9	80%	51–63	✓
South Carolina State @ Jacksonville	+6.7	142.4	76%	62–71	✓
Bryant @ Buffalo	+8.4	153.9	79%	87–64	✗
Nicholls @ Northern Kentucky	+3.2	134.4	55%	61–59	✗
Northern Iowa @ Wichita State	+15.4	153.4	87%	73–79	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri	+13.8	139.4	87%	39–111	✓
Morehead State @ Chattanooga	+11.3	132.7	85%	62–76	✓
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State	+13.1	153.5	88%	78–85	✓
Northern Colorado @ South Dakota State	-1.5	155.2	49%	78–69	✓
Grand Canyon @ Arizona State	+6.1	142.6	79%	76–87	✓
LSU @ Kansas State	+3.6	144.1	63%	76–65	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Mexico State	+16.8	150.2	89%	82–83	✓
Seattle U @ Cal Poly	+6.1	149.6	73%	71–75	✓
Omaha @ UNLV	+3.3	149.2	58%	69–80	✓
Northern Arizona @ Pacific	+8.8	143.1	79%	60–57	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Charleston Southern	-0.5	154.4	50%	86–76	✓
Tennessee Tech @ VMI	+4.0	142.7	68%	72–71	✗
New Orleans @ Stonehill	+0.4	140.4	48%	54–80	✓
Holy Cross @ Sacred Heart	-1.1	143.7	46%	82–75	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Michigan	+4.8	139.0	68%	79–60	✗
William & Mary @ Winthrop	+9.4	140.1	81%	85–86	✓
Virginia @ Villanova	+0.8	135.0	57%	70–60	✗
Florida @ Florida State	+0.3	144.1	49%	87–74	✗
TCU @ Michigan	+8.4	144.1	72%	64–76	✓
Monmouth @ Rutgers	+19.0	145.1	89%	81–98	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.