I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–11 on winners spread MAE 9.6 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ Wichita State -6.0 140.0 30% 63–68 ✗
Iowa @ Wisconsin -1.2 146.4 46% 77–62 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -5.5 129.1 24% 70–62 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC +0.8 133.9 53% 80–71 ✗
Illinois State @ Bradley +6.8 136.2 77% 88–71 ✗
Ohio State @ Penn State -2.8 145.2 36% 92–82 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Belmont +11.9 149.6 87% 59–63 ✓
BYU @ Pacific -6.1 143.4 29% 80–52 ✓
Utah @ Oregon State -1.6 140.5 44% 56–74 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Murray State +13.4 140.2 88% 68–59 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Austin Peay +9.6 145.4 83% 57–79 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +17.5 144.9 90% 65–87 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan +9.7 136.9 82% 64–71 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA +3.0 140.3 65% 60–74 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ UT Martin -11.3 153.7 15% 89–72 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State +1.2 138.0 53% 86–91 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point -8.5 144.7 19% 76–70 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +6.7 137.7 78% 71–60 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +4.0 138.9 65% 68–63 ✗
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah +4.6 150.3 72% 69–88 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +15.1 148.8 89% 59–92 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington +8.4 146.6 80% 76–90 ✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State -13.1 133.5 14% 67–53 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +12.3 134.6 87% 64–84 ✓
California @ Washington State +5.0 133.0 71% 51–82 ✓
Stanford @ Washington -6.7 139.9 24% 79–61 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon +0.5 140.5 54% 56–60 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC +0.7 134.8 55% 55–66 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield -3.7 137.0 30% 80–69 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State +2.7 148.2 66% 72–70 ✗
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -5.3 130.5 25% 64–58 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton -2.4 139.6 40% 73–68 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky -9.6 145.5 18% 75–81 ✗
Oakland @ Milwaukee +3.7 155.8 64% 85–81 ✗
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy +10.2 150.9 85% 74–85 ✓
South Alabama @ App State +2.4 139.5 61% 65–63 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State +8.8 139.5 80% 66–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.