Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NKU +400 WRST -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -13.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -9.6 (+15.6) | 145.5 (+10.5) | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -9.1 (+15.1) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -9.6 (+15.6) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -9.6 (+15.6) | 146.5 (+9.5) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NKU 80 – 76 WRST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 18-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#231) | 11.4 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#206) | 0.90 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#212) | 1.32 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#174) | 0.562 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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