Betting Lines
| Spread | CAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR +240 CAN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CAN -5.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -3.7 (-7.3) | 137.0 (+12.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -4.9 (-6.1) | 136.9 (+12.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -3.8 (-7.2) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -4.0 (-7.0) | 138.6 (+10.4) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | FAIR 61 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CAN 85 – 81 FAIR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CAN 78 – 67 FAIR |
| Mar 8, 2024 | FAIR 74 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 15, 2024 | FAIR 88 – 63 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 7-6 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-5 |
| Home | 4-8 | 3-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#313) | -2.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#285) | 0.52 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#283) | 0.44 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#306) | 0.576 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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