Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–5 on winners spread MAE 8.9 25 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northeastern @ North Carolina +11.5 137.6 86% 62–82 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.7 159.7 64% 90–87 ✗
Richmond @ VCU +4.7 140.2 70% 56–68 ✓
South Florida @ UCF +4.5 132.8 69% 65–81 ✓
Nebraska @ Maryland +10.5 133.8 85% 71–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -0.6 142.5 46% 82–78 ✓
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +4.6 139.3 70% 71–64 ✗
The Citadel @ Wofford +6.9 154.0 77% 67–81 ✓
Samford @ Furman +13.3 151.0 88% 64–78 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +8.6 143.6 82% 81–89 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ VMI +0.6 144.0 52% 77–88 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +13.7 147.4 88% 71–89 ✓
Valparaiso @ Loyola Chicago +17.9 129.9 91% 52–54 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -12.2 136.7 14% 59–41 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -7.7 141.0 20% 77–69 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico -6.9 141.2 25% 83–74 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +12.2 138.1 87% 52–60 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest +0.0 145.7 50% 84–60 ✗
South Carolina @ Tennessee +11.7 144.9 87% 73–93 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +3.6 144.4 66% 72–82 ✓
Utah State @ Boise State +3.7 140.2 67% 70–79 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois -5.9 135.1 26% 68–53 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +3.6 135.5 67% 65–51 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +2.2 134.5 63% 77–49 ✗
Campbell @ Hampton -0.5 139.7 46% 76–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.