Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +188 UNCG -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -1.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -0.6 (+10.4) | 144.0 (+21.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.4 (+12.4) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.5 (+11.5) | 147.5 (+17.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -0.3 (+10.7) | 144.0 (+21.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | 5.1 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#188) | 1.05 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#179) | 1.28 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.565 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.