Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +260 DUKE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +24 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -0.7 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -0.0 (-24.0) | 145.7 (-1.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -1.2 (-22.8) | 140.6 (+3.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.6 (-23.4) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.0 (-24.0) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#95) | 8.9 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#157) | 0.99 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#147) | 1.90 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#206) | 0.517 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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