Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SIU +175 MOST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -7.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.9 (-9.1) | 135.1 (-14.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.7 (-9.3) | 132.9 (-11.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.5 (-8.5) | 135.2 (-14.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.6 (-8.4) | 136.4 (-15.4) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#227) | 5.9 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#194) | 1.04 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#237) | 1.05 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#200) | 0.535 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 17.8% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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