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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Missouri
@
Georgia
|
-2.3 | 157.0 | 41% | 70–80 | ✗ |
Florida
@
Arkansas
|
+6.0 | 152.3 | 73% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Mount St. Mary's
|
+4.3 | 130.9 | 67% | 61–39 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Maryland
|
+10.5 | 135.2 | 85% | 50–64 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-4.3 | 141.2 | 31% | 81–86 | ✗ |
St. Francis Brooklyn
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+4.4 | 159.4 | 69% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Temple
@
Tulsa
|
+4.0 | 130.5 | 67% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Purdue
|
+9.3 | 136.5 | 81% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Rhode Island
|
+4.0 | 135.1 | 64% | 89–91 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ball State
|
+0.9 | 147.7 | 53% | 75–62 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Toledo
|
+11.5 | 152.0 | 87% | 75–87 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Western Michigan
|
-11.2 | 138.6 | 16% | 76–69 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
St. John's
|
+1.7 | 152.8 | 56% | 84–93 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Illinois
|
+12.4 | 149.5 | 88% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Santa Clara
|
-0.2 | 133.0 | 54% | 76–73 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Louis
|
+13.3 | 143.8 | 88% | 57–78 | ✓ |
|
Wagner
@
Mount St. Mary's
|
+3.2 | 130.4 | 62% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Quinnipiac
|
-2.2 | 141.2 | 40% | 70–74 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Pittsburgh
|
+3.5 | 143.0 | 68% | 74–73 | ✗ |
Sacred Heart
@
Central Connecticut
|
-0.3 | 141.1 | 49% | 82–70 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Holy Cross
|
+2.2 | 143.6 | 60% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Evansville
@
Indiana State
|
+8.2 | 130.4 | 81% | 73–87 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Radford
|
+4.0 | 135.3 | 70% | 69–57 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Butler
|
+0.8 | 132.1 | 54% | 73–57 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.