Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -175 TEM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -4.0 (+2.0) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -2.4 (+3.6) | 128.2 (+9.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -4.6 (+1.4) | 130.4 (+7.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -4.5 (+1.5) | 130.7 (+7.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TLSA 78 – 76 TEM |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TLSA 75 – 71 TEM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | TEM 81 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TLSA 80 – 74 TEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TLSA 72 – 67 TEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 5-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| Away | 4-4 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#116) | 1.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#86) | 0.48 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#102) | 0.88 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#149) | 0.487 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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