Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -600 M-OH +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +12 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -11.5 (+0.5) | 152.0 (+10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.0 (+2.0) | 149.3 (+12.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.7 (-0.7) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.2 (-0.2) | 152.2 (+9.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#73) | -1.6 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#76) | -0.56 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#79) | -0.45 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#67) | 0.462 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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