Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +120 BGSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -0.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.9 (-13.9) | 147.7 (-10.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -0.1 (-12.9) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.4 (-12.6) | 151.6 (-14.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -0.4 (-13.4) | 149.0 (-12.0) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | BGSU 77 – 52 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BGSU 61 – 52 BALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BALL 91 – 69 BGSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BGSU 80 – 70 BALL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | BGSU 81 – 72 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#175) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#198) | 0.04 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#179) | 0.02 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#170) | 0.501 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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