Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -120 XAV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -1.7 (+7.3) | 152.8 (+24.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -0.5 (+8.5) | 152.7 (+24.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -1.7 (+7.3) | 154.9 (+22.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -1.8 (+7.2) | 152.9 (+24.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 6-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 10.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#61) | 2.36 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#58) | 2.80 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#89) | 0.589 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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