Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | INST -225 EVAN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | INST -9.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.2 (+5.8) | 130.4 (+29.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.7 (+6.3) | 129.3 (+30.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -8.4 (+5.6) | 128.6 (+31.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.5 (+5.5) | 131.1 (+28.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | -4.0 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#112) | -0.77 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#129) | -1.05 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#99) | 0.457 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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