Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -200 MSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -9.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.3 (+0.7) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.5 (+2.5) | 134.7 (+5.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.0 (+1.0) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -9.5 (+0.5) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#28) | 5.7 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#25) | 1.46 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#18) | 2.32 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#35) | 0.509 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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