Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -900 NU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -14.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.4 (-5.4) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -11.8 (-4.8) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.5 (-5.5) | 148.2 (-9.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.6 (-5.6) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-13 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#3) | 7.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#7) | 0.82 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.32 (#5) | 1.77 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#30) | 0.476 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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