Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -2000 SAM +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -16.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -13.3 (+0.7) | 151.0 (-9.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -11.6 (+2.4) | 150.1 (-8.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -15.0 (-1.0) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -14.3 (-0.3) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 2-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 4-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#68) | -5.0 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#108) | -0.97 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#100) | -0.97 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#80) | 0.455 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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