Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PRES -120 UPST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +14 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -4.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -3.6 (-17.6) | 135.5 (-19.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -3.6 (-17.6) | 130.4 (-14.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -3.6 (-17.6) | 134.1 (-18.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -3.7 (-17.7) | 135.6 (-19.6) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-15 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Home | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#294) | -10.5 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#318) | -2.26 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#305) | -2.55 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#322) | 0.430 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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