Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -138 USF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -4.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.5 (+11.5) | 132.8 (+13.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.4 (+13.6) | 130.3 (+15.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.7 (+11.3) | 131.6 (+14.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -5.0 (+11.0) | 133.6 (+12.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#96) | 0.72 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#84) | 0.93 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.517 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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