Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -175 MER +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -5.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -4.6 (-11.6) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -4.4 (-11.4) | 136.4 (-1.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -4.5 (-11.5) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.0 (-12.0) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 8-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#108) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | 0.36 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#119) | 0.58 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#93) | 0.515 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.