Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -2000 NE +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -12.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.5 (+8.5) | 137.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.9 (+9.1) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.6 (+8.4) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.8 (+8.2) | 135.6 (+8.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-2 |
| Home | 10-1 | 5-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#53) | 0.3 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#52) | 0.56 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#45) | 0.39 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.569 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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