Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USC -600 ASU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | USC -14.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -13.7 (+4.3) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.6 (+5.4) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -12.7 (+5.3) | 150.4 (+9.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -12.3 (+5.7) | 146.3 (+13.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#11) | 3.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#17) | 0.59 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#13) | 0.81 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#7) | 0.527 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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