Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APP -110 USA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -2.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.4 (-4.4) | 139.5 (-11.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.9 (-3.9) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.0 (-3.0) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.8 (-3.8) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | APP 65 – 57 USA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | APP 91 – 84 USA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USA 68 – 61 APP |
| Feb 11, 2023 | USA 74 – 57 APP |
| Feb 19, 2022 | APP 69 – 51 USA |
Game Analysis
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