Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SF -225 LMU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -4.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.0 (-9.0) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -2.0 (-7.0) | 132.9 (-1.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.0 (-9.0) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -3.7 (-8.7) | 137.8 (-6.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 7-5 |
| Home | 3-5 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#95) | 3.3 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | 1.23 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#129) | 1.25 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#130) | 0.528 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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